近日，永利徐航天教授的獨作論文“Commercial-to-residential land-use conversion and residential recentralization in large cities”被《Canadian Journal of Economics》錄用。該文針對近二十年美國、日本等發達國家大城市的居住人口從“郊區化”轉變為“回歸中心城區”的現象，首次基于宏觀經濟預期變化和土地的商業-居住用途轉換，從住宅供給的角度提供了解釋，區别于已有文獻聚焦于居住需求的變化。《Canadian Journal of Economics》是由加拿大經濟學會主辦的綜合性經濟學期刊，在經濟學界享有良好的聲譽和廣泛的認可度，是經貿學院院定A2權威期刊。

摘要：We examine the long-term impact of a real estate bubble on the land-use patterns of Tokyo and Osaka from 1980 to 2003 and find that fluctuations in land prices reflected changing demand for commercial land relative to that for residential land, which, in turn, affected housing supply and residential location choices. During the real estate bubble, land developers favored commercial over residential development because the perceived productive value of commercial land increased sharply. Thus, daytime population in central cities increased and residential population fell. During the economic downturn, however, the demand for commercial space fell, houses were favored by land developers and residents were recentralized. Our causal estimates show that the commercial-to-residential land-use conversion can explain approximately 9-16% of the housing starts after the bubble burst in Tokyo and Osaka, and their populations would have been reduced by 2-3% otherwise. The effect is more prominent in their central business districts. Our findings provide a novel explanation for the recent changes in central neighborhoods.